Author: Lucia Russo; Cleo Anastassopoulou; Athanassios Tsakris; Gennaro Nicola Bifulco; Emilio Fortunato Campana; Gerardo Toraldo; Constantinos Siettos
Title: Tracing DAY-ZERO and Forecasting the Fade out of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Lombardy, Italy: A Compartmental Modelling and Numerical Optimization Approach. Document date: 2020_3_20
ID: fuqtwn5a_38
Snippet: The eigenvalues (that is the roots of the characteristic polynomial of the Jacobian matrix) dictate if the disease-free equilibrium is stable or not, that is if an emerging infectious disease can spread in the population. In particular, the disease-free state is stable, meaning that an infectious disease will not result 245 in an outbreak, if and only if all the norms of the eigenvalues of the Jacobian J of the discrete time system are bounded by.....
Document: The eigenvalues (that is the roots of the characteristic polynomial of the Jacobian matrix) dictate if the disease-free equilibrium is stable or not, that is if an emerging infectious disease can spread in the population. In particular, the disease-free state is stable, meaning that an infectious disease will not result 245 in an outbreak, if and only if all the norms of the eigenvalues of the Jacobian J of the discrete time system are bounded by one. Jury's stability criterion [24] (the analogue of Routh-Hurwitz criterion for discrete-time systems) can be used to determine the stability of the linearized discrete time system by analysis of 12 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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