Author: Lucia Russo; Cleo Anastassopoulou; Athanassios Tsakris; Gennaro Nicola Bifulco; Emilio Fortunato Campana; Gerardo Toraldo; Constantinos Siettos
Title: Tracing DAY-ZERO and Forecasting the Fade out of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Lombardy, Italy: A Compartmental Modelling and Numerical Optimization Approach. Document date: 2020_3_20
ID: fuqtwn5a_9
Snippet: per day and p is the probability of infection upon a contact between a susceptible and an infected. Our main assumption here is that only a fraction, say of the 100 actual number of exposed cases I(t) are confirmed through testing and reported as I c (t). Thus, upon confirmation, we assume that the infected persons I c go into quarantine, and, thus, they don't transmit further the disease. A fraction of the confirmed I c cases that is given by th.....
Document: per day and p is the probability of infection upon a contact between a susceptible and an infected. Our main assumption here is that only a fraction, say of the 100 actual number of exposed cases I(t) are confirmed through testing and reported as I c (t). Thus, upon confirmation, we assume that the infected persons I c go into quarantine, and, thus, they don't transmit further the disease. A fraction of the confirmed I c cases that is given by the fatality ratio f =
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