Author: Huiwen Wang; Yanwen Zhang; Shan Lu; Shanshan Wang
Title: Tracking and forecasting milepost moments of the epidemic in the early-outbreak: framework and applications to the COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_24
ID: fyh8gjjl_44
Snippet: This indicates that the daily completion rate I t will start to be greater than the daily infection rate K t , that is, the value of the outbreak status indicator R t becomes less than 1. The population size with infectious capacity will be reduced, and the pressure of medical resources will be significantly relieved, marking the beginning of "mitigation period". The mitigation period will continue until the appearance of zero report for newly co.....
Document: This indicates that the daily completion rate I t will start to be greater than the daily infection rate K t , that is, the value of the outbreak status indicator R t becomes less than 1. The population size with infectious capacity will be reduced, and the pressure of medical resources will be significantly relieved, marking the beginning of "mitigation period". The mitigation period will continue until the appearance of zero report for newly confirmed cases, that is, E t = 0, which we call it as the first "zero" point Z 1 . After the first zero point is reached, the intensity of prevention and control in the entire society will be relieved except for the hospital, that is, the "mitigation period" ends and the "convergence period" starts.
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