Author: Huiwen Wang; Yanwen Zhang; Shan Lu; Shanshan Wang
Title: Tracking and forecasting milepost moments of the epidemic in the early-outbreak: framework and applications to the COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_24
ID: fyh8gjjl_51
Snippet: The second part, which is the focus of this article, is when the K t starts to decrease and I t starts to increase due to effective intervention and improved healing level for individual patients. Only in this situation will the turning points and zero points T 1 , T 2 , Z 1 , Z 2 successively appear, and then the epidemic could end. Therefore, we will model the development of the epidemic under the assumption of effective intervention, then we c.....
Document: The second part, which is the focus of this article, is when the K t starts to decrease and I t starts to increase due to effective intervention and improved healing level for individual patients. Only in this situation will the turning points and zero points T 1 , T 2 , Z 1 , Z 2 successively appear, and then the epidemic could end. Therefore, we will model the development of the epidemic under the assumption of effective intervention, then we can obtain the early prediction of two turning points and two "zero" points based on the predicting modeling of E t and N t .
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