Author: Peter X Song; Lili Wang; Yiwang Zhou; Jie He; Bin Zhu; Fei Wang; Lu Tang; Marisa Eisenberg
Title: An epidemiological forecast model and software assessing interventions on COVID-19 epidemic in China Document date: 2020_3_3
ID: m9icky9z_25
Snippet: The first turning point of interest is the time when the daily number of new infected cases stops increasing. Mathematically, this corresponds to the time t at which : θ I t " 0 or the gradient of 9 θ I t is zero. As illustrated by Panel A in Figure 7 , the peak of 9 θ I t , denoted by the vertical green line, is the first turning point of interest. The second turning point is the time when the cumulative infected cases reaches its maximum, me.....
Document: The first turning point of interest is the time when the daily number of new infected cases stops increasing. Mathematically, this corresponds to the time t at which : θ I t " 0 or the gradient of 9 θ I t is zero. As illustrated by Panel A in Figure 7 , the peak of 9 θ I t , denoted by the vertical green line, is the first turning point of interest. The second turning point is the time when the cumulative infected cases reaches its maximum, meaning 9 θ I t " 0. In principle, the second turning point occurs only after the first one, as shown in Panel B in Figure 7 .
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