VIRAL MUTATIONS AS A POSSIBLE MECHANISM OF HIDDEN IMMUNIZATION AND CONTAINMENT OF A PANDEMIA

Juri Dimaschko; Victor Podolsky

Next, we use the SIMR model to analyze the current state of the epidemic in some specific cases. We note right away that the model proceeds from constant rather than local parameters, and therefore can pretend to describe only the average distribution of the epidemic in each country, developing only in time. At the same time, it is clear that in megacities and conglomerates it should develop much faster. This is exactly what is observed during the development of the pandemic. In order to smooth out this discrepancy between the model and the real situation, we will choose in each country the reference region of compact residence, which accounts for the majority of infections. For example, in Italy such a region is Lombardy with a population of 10 million people (of the total population of Italy 60 million). The following is a summary table of such reference areas / megacities for various countries to which the SIMR model will be applied (see Tab.1).