Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters

John P. A. Ioannidis; Cathrine Axfors; Despina G. Contopoulos-Ioannidis

As the data from the first epidemic wave of COVID-19 mature, knowledge of relative and absolute risks for different age groups and for people with different co-morbidities are instrumental for carefully choosing next steps. Aggressive measures such as lockdowns have been implemented in many countries. This is a fully justified "better safe than sorry" approach in the absence of good data. However, long-term lockdowns may have major adverse consequences for health (suicides, worsening mental health, cardiovascular disease, loss of health insurance from unemployment, etc.) and society at large. 29 It is even argued that lockdowns may be even harmful as a response to COVID-19 itself, if they broaden rather than flatten the epidemic curve. 30 Information from large scale testing and seroprevalence studies should soon give us a more clear picture about the true frequency of infections and thus more accurate assessments of the overall infection fatality rate. Data from Iceland suggest that almost all infections are either asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic and thus do not come to medical attention. 31 These data also . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.