Population-Level Mortality Rates from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in South Korea

Samir Soneji; Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez; JaeWon Yang; Caroline Mann

We note several limitations. First, the case distribution and case fatality rates on which we base our results were current as of 22 March 2020. However, the pandemic in South Korea, including the case distribution and case fatality rates could change rapidly. 2 Another outbreak could overwhelm the capacity of the healthcare system and, consequently, case fatality rates may increase as limited healthcare resources are unable to accommodate the increasing number of COVID-19 patients. 18 Second, our results are specific to South Korea, which was studied as their governmental agencies provided the most robust and updated case distribution and case fatality rate data by age. As a result, the ASDR of COVID-19 in South Korea, a nation which has been lauded for its widespread screening and early treatment, may differ from those of other countries. 19 Our publicly available software allows researchers and public health officials to input case distributions by age, case fatality rates by age, and total number of cases (either laboratory confirmed or alternative scenarios) to estimate the mortality burden of COVID-19 for other countries. Third, the number of laboratory-confirmed cases could be less than the true All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.