Relationship of George Floyd protests to increases in COVID-19 cases using event study methodology

Valentine, Randall; Valentine, Dawn; Valentine, Jimmie L

BACKGROUND: Protests ignited by the George Floyd incident were examined for any significant impact on COVID-19 infection rates in select US cities. METHODS: Eight US cities were studied in which protestors in the tens of thousands were reported. Only cities that reside in states whose stay-at-home orders had been rescinded or expired for a minimum of 30 days were included in the sample to account for impact of growth rates solely due to economies reopening. Event study methodology was used with a 30-day estimation period to examine whether growth in COVID-19 infection rates was significant. RESULTS: In the eight cities analyzed, all had positive abnormal growth in infection rate. In six of the eight cities, infection rate growth was positive and significant. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, it was apparent that violations of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-recommended social distancing guidelines caused a significant increase in infection rates. The data suggest that to slow the spread of COVID-19, CDC guidelines must be followed in protest situations.