Statistical Analyses of the Public Health and Economic Performance of Nordic Countries in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Gordon, D.; Grafton, R. Q.; Steinshamn, S. I.

Aim: To compare trends and undertake statistical analyses of differences in public health performance (confirmed cases and fatalities) of Nordic countries; Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden, and New Zealand, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Per capita trends in total cases and per capita fatalities were analysed and difference-in-difference statistical tests undertaken to assess whether differences in stringency of mandated social distancing (SD) measures, testing rates and border closures explain cross-country differences. Results: Sweden is a statistical outlier, relative to its Nordic neighbours, for both per capita cases and per capita fatalities associated with COVID-19 but not in terms of the reduction in economic growth. Sweden's public health differences, compared to its Nordic neigbours, are partially explained by differences in terms of international border closures and the level of stringency of SD measures (including testing) implemented from early March to June 2020. Conclusions: We find that: one, early imposition of full international travel restrictions combined with high levels of government-mandated stringency of SD reduced the per capita cases and per capita fatalities associated with COVID-19 in 2020 in the selected countries and, two, in Nordic countries, less stringent government-mandated SD is not associated with higher quarterly economic growth.