Author: Lucas Böttcher; Mingtao Xia; Tom Chou
Title: Why estimating population-based case fatality rates during epidemics may be misleading Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: embnko1q_38
Snippet: The infections that occur after t = 0 contribute only to I(Ï„ < t, t); thus, D 1 (t) and R 1 (t) do not depend on the transmission rate β or the number of susceptibles S(t). Note that all the populations derived above implicitly average over Ï(Ï„ 1 ; n, γ) for the first cohort of identified infecteds (but not subsequent infecteds). Moreover, the population density I(Ï„ ≥ t, t) follows the same equation asP (t|Ï„ 1 ) provided the same Ï(Ï„ 1.....
Document: The infections that occur after t = 0 contribute only to I(Ï„ < t, t); thus, D 1 (t) and R 1 (t) do not depend on the transmission rate β or the number of susceptibles S(t). Note that all the populations derived above implicitly average over Ï(Ï„ 1 ; n, γ) for the first cohort of identified infecteds (but not subsequent infecteds). Moreover, the population density I(Ï„ ≥ t, t) follows the same equation asP (t|Ï„ 1 ) provided the same Ï(Ï„ 1 ; n, γ) is used in their respective calculations.
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