Why lockdown? Simplified arithmetic tools for decision-makers, health professionals, journalists and the general public to explore containment options for the novel coronavirus

Gerry Killeen; Samson Kiware

While compliance and enforcement is of great importance to lock down effectiveness, so is acceptability and socio-economic feasibility. While high income countries move to facilitate population-wide compliance with direct financial support and augmented social services, different tactics will be required in low income countries like Tanzania. Although Tanzania is urbanizing very rapidly, most of the population still resides in rural areas 99 where propagation of directly-transmitted diseases like COVID-19 is always less intense. Fortunately, Tanzania is currently in the midst of this year's farming season, during which many rural families are out in the fields where social distancing is relatively easy. While farming season also conveniently brings a lull in trading activity at commercial hubs in rural towns and villages, it also represents a seasonal low point in the domestic food reserves of many rural households, so selective food support may be invaluable for enabling the most vulnerable families to comply effectively with self-quarantine and self-isolation directives. However, the growing urban population represents a much larger challenge, because far fewer people rely on farming for their livelihoods. Many live in crowded informal settlements where lack of shelter, water, sanitation and space, relying on unreliable, informal sources of income to survive on a day-to-day basis. Informal livelihoods and settlements in the busiest urban centres of the country will therefore require particularly urgent attention and creativity, to support daily food, water and hygiene needs. It may also be useful to consider providing safe transport with managed social distancing (to be followed by self-isolation) for those with options to sit out the epidemic with family and friends in rural areas.