Years of life lost due to the psychosocial consequences of COVID19 mitigation strategies based on Swiss data

Dominik Andreas Moser; Jennifer Glaus; Sophia Frangou; Daniel Scott Schechter

Limitations: While taking the existing knowledge into account, like all model projections, the present one is based on a number of assumptions about the likely size of the impact of confinement. In this sense, our model projection is obviously constrained by the limitations of the available literature which, itself, involves a number of unknowns. Given the time constraints, the uncertainty in those assumptions is increased; the authors however judge the urgency of such projections to be very high at the moment. Additionally, the present projection does not pretend to be all-encompassing concerning effects of confinement, several other effects are likely to be adverse, such as -for example-increases in prolonged grief disorder, elder abuse, increase of sedentary lifestyle or change 9 of diet for example. The projection also does not account for potentially beneficial changes in behaviour, for example reductions in car accidents. Furthermore, the model does not include an economic component as a result of COVID-19 mitigation, nor interaction of such a n economic component with psychosocial risk factors. Due to frequent co-occurrence of certain phenomena it is possible that a single individual may be affected by more than one of the factors presented. Where possible data that was adjusted adequately for age, sex and socio-economics was applied, but for several factors, possibilities to do so were limited by the current state of the literature.