Author: B Shayak; Mohit Manoj Sharma; Richard H Rand; Awadhesh Kumar Singh; Anoop Misra
Title: Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 and Impact on Public Health Policy Document date: 2020_4_1
ID: 3ueg2i6w_25
Snippet: The reason behind our variable choice is that y is an excellent indicator of the actual spread of the disease in free society (as opposed to in anticipatory quarantine) while w is the time history of cases which gets reported in official records of the disease. A disparity between these two is something we wish to highlight. Finally, we note that like all lumped-parameter epidemic dynamic models, ours is a good one for the bulk of the disease but.....
Document: The reason behind our variable choice is that y is an excellent indicator of the actual spread of the disease in free society (as opposed to in anticipatory quarantine) while w is the time history of cases which gets reported in official records of the disease. A disparity between these two is something we wish to highlight. Finally, we note that like all lumped-parameter epidemic dynamic models, ours is a good one for the bulk of the disease but is not expected to work well during the very early stages of spread and the final phases of trail-off.
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