Using Digital Surveillance Tools for Near Real-Time Mapping of the Risk of International Infectious Disease Spread: Ebola as a Case Study

Sangeeta Bhatia; Britta Lassmann; Emily Cohn; Malwina Carrion; Moritz U.G. Kraemer; Mark Herringer; John Brownstein; Larry Madoff; Anne Cori; Pierre Nouvellet

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/19011940 doi: medRxiv preprint . The left panel shows the True and False alert rates using different thresholds for classification for alerts raised 1 (violet), 2 (light violet), 3 (dark pink) and 4 (light green) weeks ahead. The black curve depicts the overall True and False alert rates. On each curve, the dot shows the True and False Alert rates at 92.5% threshold. The right panel shows the True (green), False (orange) and Missed (red) 1 week ahead alerts using the 92.5 th percentile of the forecast interval as threshold. The figure only shows countries on the African continent for which either the 92.5 th percentile of the predicted incidence or the observed incidence was greater than 0 at least once. The first alert in each country is shown using larger symbols (square or triangle). Alerts in a country in a week where there were no observed cases in the previous week are shown using hollow triangles. In each case, weeks for which all observed points were imputed are shown in lighter shades.