Selected article for: "case number and large case number"
Author: Justin D Silverman; Alex D Washburne
Title: Using ILI surveillance to estimate state-specific case detection rates and forecast SARS-CoV-2 spread in the United States
  • Document date: 2020_4_3
    • ID: 17oac3bg_15
    Snippet: We use outpatient ILI surveillance data from around the US to estimate the prevalence of SARS- CoV-2+. We find a clear, anomalous surge in ILI outpatients during the COVID epidemic that correlates with the progression of the epidemic across the US. The surge of non-influenza ILI outpatients is much larger than the number of confirmed case in each state, providing evidence of large numbers of symptomatic probable COVID cases that remain undetected.....
    Document: We use outpatient ILI surveillance data from around the US to estimate the prevalence of SARS- CoV-2+. We find a clear, anomalous surge in ILI outpatients during the COVID epidemic that correlates with the progression of the epidemic across the US. The surge of non-influenza ILI outpatients is much larger than the number of confirmed case in each state, providing evidence of large numbers of symptomatic probable COVID cases that remain undetected. The slowest epidemic doubling time that could explain the ILI surge would be 3.5 days and this rate could only of potential COVID outpatients with presumably milder distribution of clinical symptoms than estimated from prior studies of SARS-CoV-2+ inpatients.

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