Potential dissemination of epidemics based on Brazilian mobile geolocation data. Part I: Population dynamics and future spreading of infection in the states of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro during the pandemic of COVID-19.

Pedro S. Peixoto; Diego R. Marcondes; Cláudia M Peixoto; Lucas Queiroz; Rafael Gouveia; Afonso Delgado; Sérgio M Oliva

The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.07.20056739 doi: medRxiv preprint This proportion of movement from region A to a region B is given simply by the number of recordings which departed from A in the given day and were in B within 24 hours, divided by the total number of recordings which started in A in the given day. This is the proportion of movements starting from A in a day and ending in B within 24 hours. Also, the proportion of no-movement of A in a day is given by the number of recordings which started in A in this day and were still in A in the second use, less than 24 hours later. These proportions are organized in a transition matrix, in which the entry of column A and row B is the proportion of movement from A to B. For each considered day in March 2019 and 2020, we have a transition matrix containing the movement between regions in this day.