Potential dissemination of epidemics based on Brazilian mobile geolocation data. Part I: Population dynamics and future spreading of infection in the states of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro during the pandemic of COVID-19.

Pedro S. Peixoto; Diego R. Marcondes; Cláudia M Peixoto; Lucas Queiroz; Rafael Gouveia; Afonso Delgado; Sérgio M Oliva

In the first part of this study we rely on mobile data to assess the movement pattern between cities within the states of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, in order to identify future focus of infection within the states. We concentrate on these states as they were the first ones in Brazil to have significant number of confirmed cases and local transmission. To model the mobility via mobile data we have established a fruitful collaboration with Brazilian company In Loco ( https://inloco.com.br/ ). In Loco provides software engineering services to mobile phone applications and has a database with more than 60 million devices. The anonymized data provided by them contain the physical location where billions of visits to selected apps have occurred. Although no civil information is collected, such as name or social security number, in deference to users' privacy concerns, In Loco can detect, through anonymous tracking, the most likely devices' locations across the country and the movement between them.