Author: Richard A Neher; Robert Dyrdak; Valentin Druelle; Emma B Hodcroft; Jan Albert
Title: Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic Document date: 2020_2_17
ID: 3p2dl8yf_36
Snippet: After several years, SARS-CoV-2 could become a seasonal CoV with characteristic winter outbreaks as shown in Fig. 1 . Such a scenario is demonstrated in Fig. 5 where a simulation similar to the one shown in Fig. 4 is run for 12 years, with the added assumption that after infection an individual become susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 again at a rate of 0.1 per year as we assumed for seasonal CoV above. After a pronounced low in 2020-2024, prevalence rec.....
Document: After several years, SARS-CoV-2 could become a seasonal CoV with characteristic winter outbreaks as shown in Fig. 1 . Such a scenario is demonstrated in Fig. 5 where a simulation similar to the one shown in Fig. 4 is run for 12 years, with the added assumption that after infection an individual become susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 again at a rate of 0.1 per year as we assumed for seasonal CoV above. After a pronounced low in 2020-2024, prevalence recovers and settles into a seasonal pattern, similar to that of the four existing seasonal CoVs.
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