Estimating the impact of public health strategies on the spread of SARS‐CoV‐2: Epidemiological modelling for Toulouse, France

Dimeglio, Chloé; Miedougé, Marcel; Loubes, Jean‐Michel; Mansuy, Jean‐Michel; Izopet, Jacques

The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) and the resulting disease COVID‐19 has killed over 2 million people as of 22 January 2021. We have used a modified susceptible, infected, recovered epidemiological model to predict how the spread of the virus in France will vary depending on the public health strategies adopted, including anti‐COVID‐19 vaccination. Our prediction model indicates that the French authorities' adoption of a gradual release from lockdown could lead in March 2021 to a virus prevalence similar to that before lockdown. However, a massive vaccination campaign initiated in January 2021 and the continuation of public health measures over several months could curb the spread of virus and thus relieve the load on hospitals.