Selected article for: "model parameter and parameter range"
Author: Richard A Neher; Robert Dyrdak; Valentin Druelle; Emma B Hodcroft; Jan Albert
Title: Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
  • Document date: 2020_2_17
    • ID: 3p2dl8yf_42
    Snippet: The seasonal CoVs show a strong and consistent seasonal variation, and modeling suggests that this requires strong variation in transmissibility throughout the year. It should be noted, however, that SARS-CoV-2 does seem to transmit in tropical climates like Singapore, and so winter is not a necessary condition of SARS-CoV-2 spread. Furthermore, our models are compatible with work by Luo et al. (2020) showing that recent trends in different regio.....
    Document: The seasonal CoVs show a strong and consistent seasonal variation, and modeling suggests that this requires strong variation in transmissibility throughout the year. It should be noted, however, that SARS-CoV-2 does seem to transmit in tropical climates like Singapore, and so winter is not a necessary condition of SARS-CoV-2 spread. Furthermore, our models are compatible with work by Luo et al. (2020) showing that recent trends in different regions across East-Asia imply that seasonality alone is unlikely to end SARS-CoV-2 spread. Precise values for the underlying model parameters and the effect of infection control measures are currently unavailable. For this reason we explored a range of parameter values to assess the robustness of the results to model assumptions.

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