Why lockdown? Simplified arithmetic tools for decision-makers, health professionals, journalists and the general public to explore containment options for the novel coronavirus

Gerry Killeen; Samson Kiware

However, such spectacular containment failures are to be avoided at all costs and this simplified model only accounts for the direct preventative effects of follow up on subsequent transmission, so none of these simulations should be used to in any way imply that contact tracing and isolation should be de-prioritized. In particular, it does not account for the invaluable functions of contact tracing for monitoring and characterizing an epidemic, 1,4,6,22,24,77 and for understanding the influence of interventions on transmission dynamics. For example, the tracing of transmission to a relatively small number of clusters in Korea, and especially the incrimination of venues like the Shincheonji Church provide invaluable insights that guide more rigorous, effective follow up on lock down measures. 64 In Ireland, early observations that mean size of close contact clusters had shrunk from 20 to 5 were reported to the public as an encouraging early sign that behavioural interventions were impacting risks of onward transmission. Without such essential detailed information about how transmission persists, as well as the strengths and weakness of ongoing intervention efforts, national containment programmes would be flying blind.