World governments should protect their population from COVID-19 pandemic using Italy and Lombardy as precursor

Mariano Supino; Alberto d'Onofrio; Federico Luongo; Giovanni Occhipinti; Alma Dal Co

China was able to control the outbreak of COVID-19 in about two months by implementing strong containments measures, such as lockdown of the population (1). Lockdown can appear as an extreme measure, but it is not. Mild restrictions, such closure of schools and partial closure of workplaces, can lower the basic reproduction number of infection (R0) but not below the unit. With mild restrictions, the number of infections would grow at the same rate for a period equal to the incubation time (which is below 14 days for 99% of COVID-19 infections (2)), and would then grow exponentially at a lower rate. Therefore, mild restrictions would slow down the epidemic, but not control it (3) . In this work, we discuss the necessity and efficacy of lockdown measures for controlling the outbreak of COVID-19, analyzing data from Italy, the country with the largest recorded outbreak of the disease today.