Author: William Thomas Pike; Vikas Saini
Title: An international comparison of the second derivative of COVID-19 deaths after implementation of social distancing measures Document date: 2020_3_25
ID: ln26bux8_14
Snippet: In general, this analysis suggests that early adoption of social distancing is more effective than delayed implementation, even of highly restrictive measures. If China's policies aimed at achieving suppression represent a maximum possible reduction in transmission from initially high rates, then estimates based on their curve will undercount both the total deaths and maximum death rates for other countries and hence represent a reasonable lower .....
Document: In general, this analysis suggests that early adoption of social distancing is more effective than delayed implementation, even of highly restrictive measures. If China's policies aimed at achieving suppression represent a maximum possible reduction in transmission from initially high rates, then estimates based on their curve will undercount both the total deaths and maximum death rates for other countries and hence represent a reasonable lower bound for modelling: the lowest estimate of total deaths in the models in Ferguson et al.
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