Is this beginning or the end of COVID-19 battle in India? A data-driven mathematical model-based analysis of outbreak

Singh, A.; Dey, J.; Bhardwaj, S.

The India has experienced early and harshest lockdown in response to the outbreak from 25th March 2020. However, an accurate estimation of progression of spread of the infection and level of preparedness to combat this disease are urgently needed. Using a data-based mathematical model, our study has made predictions on the number of cases that are expected to rise in India till 14th June 2020. The epidemiological data of daily cases have been utilized from 25th March (i.e., the first day of lockdown) to 23rd April 2020. In the study, we have stimulated two possible scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic) for the prediction. As per the optimistic approach of modeling, COVID-19 may end in the first week of June 2020 with a total of 77,900 infected cases including 2,442 fatalities. However, the results under the pessimistic scenario are bit scary. The results show that a total of 283,300 infected cases with 10,180 fatalities till 14th June. To win the battle, 10 weeks of complete lockdown is much needed at least in the infected states and the union territories of India. Alternatively, the isolation of clusters (hotspot regions) is required if India wants resume some essential activities.