Vaccination efforts in Brazil: scenarios and perspectives under a mathematical modeling approach

Nogueira Vilches, T.; Rubio, F. A.; Forti Perroni, R.; Berg de Almeida, G.; Pio Ferreira, C.; Fortaleza, C. M. C. B.

An agent-based model is proposed to access the impact of vaccination strategies to halt the COVID-19 spread. The model is parameterized using data from São Paulo State, Brazil. It was considered the two vaccines that are already approved for emergency use in Brazil, the CoronaVac vaccine developed by the Chinese biopharmaceutical company Sinovac and the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine (ChadOx1) developed by Oxford University and the British laboratory AstraZeneca. Both of them are two-dose schemes, but the efficacy and the interval between doses are different. We found that even in the worst scenario, in which the vaccine does not prevent infection either severe symptoms, the number of deaths decreases from 122 to 99 for CoronaVac application and to 80 for ChadOx1 administration. The same patterns have been seen in hospitalizations. Nevertheless, we show that when a low risk perception occurs, the reduction values decrease between 2% to 4%. Moreover, the increase of disease prevalence also jeopardizes immunization, showing the importance of the mitigation measures maintenance. On the other hand, doubling the vaccination rate would be able to significantly decrease the disease outcomes, reducing deaths by up to 74.4%. In conclusion, vaccination, along with non-pharmaceutical measures, is key to the control of COVID-19 in Brazil.