Study on soybean potential productivity and food security assessment in China under the influence of the COVID-19 outbreak

Yao, Huizong; Zuo, Xiaoxing; Zuo, Daxing; Lin, Han; Huang, Ximeng; Zang, Chuanfu

Abstract The COVID-19 outbreak suddenly broke out globally in 2020. Pressure from the blockade and ban on food exports are starting to affect agricultural supply chains, it has led to a rapid rise in global food prices. As many grain exporting countries announced a ban on grain exports, food security issues in China have attracted great international attention. This study builds the Suitability Distribution Model and Soybean-Cereal Constraint Model to explore the relationship between soybean production potential and food security. As a result, the soybean potential planting area in China is 164.3 million ha. If the outbreak prevents China from importing soybeans, the soybean planting area will need to be increased by 6.9 times to satisfy the demands. In the meantime, the cereal self-sufficiency rate will drop to 63.4%, which will greatly affect food security. Each additional unit of soybean production will reduce 3.9 units of cereals, and 1% increase in the self-sufficiency rate of soybeans will result in a 0.63% drop in cereals. It is not sustainable to sacrifice cereal to grow soybeans and to rely heavily on imports. But to ensuring the cereal security, the self-sufficiency rate of soybeans is difficult to exceed 42%. China still need to import more than 68% of the original import volume of soybean. In the short term, the outbreak will not affect food security in China, but as soybean imports decrease, insufficient supply of soybeans will affect people's quality of life. To prevent the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, China should increase soybean stocks and strengthen international cooperation in short term. In the long term, increasing the self-sufficiency rate is the fundamental solution to soybean problem, and the key to increasing soybean cultivation is to make soybean cultivation profitable and to build a sustainable soybean planting chain. So, China need to formulate a soybean cultivation strategy prudently.