Substantial Changes of Gaseous Pollutants and Health Effects During the COVID‐19 Lockdown Period Across China

Ling, Chaohao; Li, Yongfei

The human movement and economic activities have been drastically reduced due to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID‐19) outbreak, leading to the sharp decreases of pollutant emissions and remarkable air quality improvement. Nevertheless, however, the changes of gaseous pollutant concentrations and health effects across China during the COVID‐19 lockdown period remained poorly understood. Here, a random forest model was applied to assess the impact of COVID‐19 lockdown on pollutant concentrations and potential health effects. The results suggested that estimated NO(2), SO(2), and CO concentrations in China during January 23–March 31, 2020 decreased by 13.68%, 25.71%, and 7.42%, respectively compared with the same periods in 2018–2019. Nonetheless, the predicted 8‐h O(3) concentrations across China suffered from 1.29% increases during this period. The avoided premature all‐cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease (RD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortalities induced by NO(2) decrease during COVID‐19 lockdown period reached 3,954 (3,076–4,832), 635 (468–801), 612 (459–765), and 920 (653–1,186) cases. However, the increases of all‐cause, CVD, RD, and COPD mortalities due to O(3) increase during COVID‐19 lockdown period achieved 462 (250–674), 79 (29–129), 40 (−25–105), and 52 (−34–138) cases. The natural experiment demonstrated the drastic emission reduction measures could significantly decrease the NO(2), SO(2), and CO concentrations, while they significantly elevated the O(3) concentration. It is highly imperative to propose more coordinated air pollution control strategies to control O(3) pollution.