Optimal allocation of limited vaccine to minimize the effective reproduction number()

Rao, Isabelle J.; Brandeau, Margaret L.

We examine the problem of allocating a limited supply of vaccine for controlling an infectious disease with the goal of minimizing the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text]. We consider an SIR model with two interacting populations and develop an analytical expression that the optimal vaccine allocation must satisfy. With limited vaccine supplies, we find that an all-or-nothing approach is optimal. For certain special cases, we determine the conditions under which the optimal [Formula: see text] is below 1. We present an example of vaccine allocation for COVID-19 and show that it is optimal to vaccinate younger individuals before older individuals to minimize [Formula: see text] if less than 59% of the population can be vaccinated. The analytical conditions we develop provide a simple means of determining the optimal allocation of vaccine between two population groups to minimize [Formula: see text].