Early network properties of the COVID-19 pandemic – the Chinese scenario

Rivas, Ariel L.; Febles, José L.; Smith, Stephen D.; Hoogesteijn, Almira L.; Tegos, George P.; Fasina, Folorunso O.; Hittner, James B.

OBJECTIVES: To control epidemics, sites more affected by mortality should be identified. METHODS: Defining epidemic nodes as areas that included both most fatalities per time unit and connections, such as highways, geo-temporal Chinese data on the COVID-19 epidemic were investigated with linear, logarithmic, power, growth, exponential, and logistic regression models. A z-test compared the slopes observed. RESULTS: Twenty provinces suspected to act as epidemic nodes were empirically investigated. Five provinces displayed synchronicity, long-distance connections, directionality and assortativity – network properties that helped discriminate epidemic nodes. The rank I node included most fatalities and was activated first. Fewer deaths were reported, later, by rank II and III nodes While the data from rank I-III nodes exhibited slopes, the data from the remaining provinces did not. The power curve was the best fitting model for all slopes. Because all pairs (rank I vs. rank II, rank I vs. rank III, and rank II vs. rank III) of epidemic nodes differed statistically, rank I-III epidemic nodes were geo-temporally and statistically distinguishable. CONCLUSIONS: The geo-temporal progression of epidemics seems to be highly structured. Epidemic network properties can distinguish regions that differ in mortality. This real-time geo-referenced analysis can inform both decision-makers and clinicians.