On outbreak of 3rd wave of Covid-19 pandemic in India and Russia

Ershkov, Sergey; Rachinskaya, Alla; Prosviryakov, E.Yu.

A novel and slightly shocking results of semi-analytic modelling for the outbreak of 3rd wave of Covid-19 pandemic in a key affected countries with low level of vaccination (India and Russia) are presented in the current analytical research. A proper extrapolation is made by means of previously suggested approach, such the extrapolated estimation for outbreak of 3rd wave of Covid-19 pandemic stems from updating the curve of modified sigmoid-type with up-inclination for the upper limit of saturation (at the end of 2nd wave of pandemic) with respect to the real data of the confirmed cases of coronavirus contamination in key countries with low level of vaccination such as India and Russia, up to date. Positive news are that key countries suffered from pandemic such as USA, France, Great Britain, Turkey, and Argentina should be excluded from our analysis as successful cases of countries with sufficient level of vaccination provided by their governments for citiziens of that countries; nonetheless, Brazil should be excluded insofar by obvious reason that most of the statistic data for Brazil is questionable. We expect that 3rd wave of pandemic will come to its end at the beginning of December 2021 for all the aforementioned countries.