Prediction of Peak and Termination of Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Epidemic in Iran

AmirPouyan Zahiri; Sepehr RafieeNasab; Ehsan Roohi

In previous studies, the number of recovered people was not considered, which led to a significant error in the calculations. However, by incorporating the available official statistical values of recovered people along with the number of susceptible people in the present study, the accuracy of results obtained by the SIR model. Furthermore, another desirable feature of the current predictions is the fact that the estimation of susceptible people, who are still present in the population ܵ ஶ ൌ ܰ െ ܸ ஶ , has a suitably lower value compared with the previous works. It means that these people would not couch the infection after the suppression of the epidemic. Also, good agreement has been observed between the predictions obtained by fitting the official number of deaths ( Fig. 1 ) and the results of the SIR model. By using the coefficient of the considered number to the total population, it is anticipated that the total number of infected people will reach four hundred thousand and finally, the epidemic will end in late spring.