Epidemiology of pandemic influenza: use of surveillance and modeling for pandemic preparedness.

Monto, Arnold S; Comanor, Lorraine; Shay, David K; Thompson, William W

Along with continual enhancement of current influenza surveillance programs, pandemic preparedness also involves application of current surveillance techniques to past pandemics to identify their viruses and patterns, as well as estimation of the potential burden of future pandemics. Although mortality surveillance has been in place in selected locations for more than a century, the recent development of molecular diagnostics has shed new light on the origin and structure of the viruses responsible for the past 3 pandemics, allowing for comparisons with new viruses identified through ongoing viral surveillance. Models previously used to estimate hospitalizations and mortality associated with past epidemics and pandemics have evolved to estimate the burden and required surge capacity of future pandemics of different severities.