Understanding the CoVID-19 pandemic Curve through statistical approach

Ibrar ul Hassan Akhtar

Zoonotic coronaviruses are grouped into four genera of Alphacoronavirus, Betacoronavirus, Gammacoronavirus and Deltacoronavirus based on difference on polyprotiens, structural and accessory proteins 1 . The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SAR) coronavirus belongs to Betacoronavirus genus and has capability to spill over in term of its shift from natural host (bat, mouse) to intermediate host of other animals (camels, cats, cows, pigs) through genetic diversity and natural co-evolution 1, 2 . The current pandemic of coronavirus (SARs-CoVID-2) referred as CoVID-19, not first time for the world, has threaten socio-economic deprivation and setback to UN sustainable development goals (SDGs). The H1NI influenza pandemic of 1918 provided us an insight related to deadliest history that had killed approximately 50-100 million population 3 . Some of answers to anticipatory questions are (a) virus origin (b) nature of pathogenesis (c) age relevancy with death (d) multiple year pandemic waves (e) do pandemic has predictable cycle? and possible future scenario to tackle such pandemics among developed as well as developing nations 3 .