Understanding the CoVID-19 pandemic Curve through statistical approach

Ibrar ul Hassan Akhtar

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.06.20055426 doi: medRxiv preprint for Eastern Mediterranean region with 17 days. Length of last segment remained in range of 3 to 5 days except for Western Pacific region with 36 days representing pandemic cool down period. The global pandemic curve characteristics include 51 days, 6 days, 4 days and 3 days from first phase to last segment of the curve. The mean CPD ignore temporal variance of the data. So, the mean and variance CPD provide in-depth information above CoVID-19. The first phase length was found shorter for Western Pacific and East Mediterranean region with 6 to 7 days (22nd January to 28th January, 2020) followed by European (25 days), American (31 days), African (34 days) and South East Asia (42 days on 3rd March, 2020). All regions varied in term of second phase period and sharp rise in cases are observed for American (2 days) followed by European (5 days), South East Asia (9 days), Western Pacific (15 days), African (17 Days) and Eastern Mediterranean (23 days). The third phase displayed that African region is facing least impact due to pandemic (5 days) followed by South East Asia (6 days), Western Pacific (7 days The polynomial approach is assessed to determine best fitting order for CoVID-19 estimation and projection based on percent error ( Table 1 ). The WHO situation report confirmed cases of 1st April, 2020 is used to evaluate the infected population projection for all three polynomial order. The 2nd order polynomial is found best in predicting infected population for Western Pacific region (R 2 = 0.97) and China (R 2 = 0.96) with error ranging between -15.7 to The polynomial fitting also support in understanding the curve status and its association with socio-economic policy decisions. The 2 nd order polynomial association with Western Pacific region especially for China explained that CoVID-19 pandemic wave 1 has passed its peak and subsided to its lowest level. While, all regions and countries best fitted with 3rd order polynomial have reached closer to its peak; due to delayed policy action or lateral spread through local transmission. The 4th order polynomial refers where disease spread is at its initial stage and expected to grow exponentially; requiring strict policy action to curtail epidemic.