Author: Juri Dimaschko; Victor Podolsky
Title: VIRAL MUTATIONS AS A POSSIBLE MECHANISM OF HIDDEN IMMUNIZATION AND CONTAINMENT OF A PANDEMIA Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: fukn227t_58
Snippet: The initial number of infected in each case is selected from the principle of correspondence between the model and statistics. It has a logarithmically weak influence on the result, however, it is given here in order to enable complete verification of the model calculations. Further, it is understood that the rate β of the virus spread during an epidemic can and should be reduced by restrictive measures. For this reason, the growth in the number.....
Document: The initial number of infected in each case is selected from the principle of correspondence between the model and statistics. It has a logarithmically weak influence on the result, however, it is given here in order to enable complete verification of the model calculations. Further, it is understood that the rate β of the virus spread during an epidemic can and should be reduced by restrictive measures. For this reason, the growth in the number of infected people is slowing. Thus, a SIMR model with a constant value of the parameter β can only show a pessimistic assessment of the course of the epidemic, corresponding to the absence of dependence β(t). The initial value of the parameter β will be taken from the initial exponential portion of the observed dependence I(t) in the first 10-15 days of the epidemic. To increase the reliability of this assessment, we use the data starting from the moment when the number of sick people exceeds 1000.
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