The transmissibility of hepatitis C virus: a modelling study in Xiamen City, China

Wang, Yao; Zhao, Zeyu; Wang, Mingzhai; Hannah, Mikah Ngwanguong; Hu, Qingqing; Rui, Jia; Liu, Xingchun; Zhu, Yuanzhao; Xu, Jingwen; Yang, Meng; Cui, Jing-An; Su, Yanhua; Zhao, Benhua; Chen, Tianmu

This study aimed at estimating the transmissibility of hepatitis C. The data for hepatitis C cases were collected in six districts in Xiamen City, China from 2004 to 2018. A population-mixed susceptible-infectious-chronic-recovered (SICR) model was used to fit the data and the parameters of the model were calculated. The basic reproduction number (R(0)) and the number of newly transmitted cases by a primary case per month (MNI) were adopted to quantitatively assess the transmissibility of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Eleven curve estimation models were employed to predict the trends of R(0) and MNI in the city. The SICR model fits the reported HCV data well (P < 0.01). The median R(0) of each district in Xiamen is 0.4059. R(0) follows the cubic model curve, the compound curve and the power function curve. The median MNI of each district in Xiamen is 0.0020. MNI follows the cubic model curve, the compound curve and the power function curve. The transmissibility of HCV follows a decreasing trend, which reveals that under the current policy for prevention and control, there would be a high feasibility to eliminate the transmission of HCV in the city.