Author: Röst, G.; Bartha, F. A.; Bogya, N.; Boldog, P.; Denes, A.; Tamas, F.; Horvath, K. J.; Juhasz, A.; Nagy, C.; Tekeli, T.; Vizi, Z.; Oroszi, B.
Title: Early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary and post-lockdown scenarios Cord-id: 5jeycvos Document date: 2020_6_5
ID: 5jeycvos
Snippet: COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a huge reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alter
Document: COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a huge reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.
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