Author: Yuan Zhang; Chong You; Zhenghao Cai; Jiarui Sun; Wenjie Hu; Xiao-Hua Zhou
Title: Prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak based on a realistic stochastic model Document date: 2020_3_13
ID: 0xzsa21a_25
Snippet: Especially, when the size of outbreak is not comparable to that of the total population, the randomness is more significant, hence a stochastic model is needed to quantify the uncertainty in estimates and predictions in such case. In our study, none of selected provinces and cities has more than 2000 accumulated confirmed by now (see table 5 in Appendix A). These number, though alerting, are not comparable to the total population in provinces or .....
Document: Especially, when the size of outbreak is not comparable to that of the total population, the randomness is more significant, hence a stochastic model is needed to quantify the uncertainty in estimates and predictions in such case. In our study, none of selected provinces and cities has more than 2000 accumulated confirmed by now (see table 5 in Appendix A). These number, though alerting, are not comparable to the total population in provinces or cities, which are of an order 10 million-100 million (see table 7 in Appendix A). Hence, a novel stochastic dynamic model is designed to capture the unique features of the COVID-19 outbreak, where the unique features here refer to • Infectious incubation period: according to an Official Press Briefing by the State Council Information Office of the People's Republic of China (2020), unlike the SARS-CoV, SARS-Cov-2 can induce an infectious incubation period.
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