Use Crow-AMSAA Method to predict the cases of the Coronavirus 19 in Michigan and U.S.A

Yanshuo Wang

From the Crow-AMSAA analysis above, at the beginning of the COVID 19, the infectious cases does not follow the Crow-AMSAA line, but when the outbreak starts, the confirmed cases does , which is for more complex problem, and NHPP models such as those for outbreaks in social networks are often believed to provide better predictions of the benefits of various mitigation strategies such as isolation, locking down and social distance [10] [11] . The 20 piece wise Crow-AMSAA plots are used to model the expected cumulative number of infected numbers over time, and Ln-Ln plot is to simplify the curve, and slope β is calculated to indicate that the infectious rate is increasing or decreasing. The traditional epidemiological models is very difficult to predict the numbers of infections when the disease spreading enters to a new different phase [5] . 25 The limitation of this piece wise Crow-AMSAA method is that the manual separation of the data has to be applied to find out the different infection phase at different time period. The good fitting of the data is depending on the good data separation.