An agent-based epidemic model REINA for COVID-19 to identify destructive policies

Jouni T Tuomisto; Juha Yrjölä; Mikko Kolehmainen; Juhani Bonsdorff; Jami Pekkanen; Tero Tikkanen

There are two main approaches to the coronavirus crisis. First, one can assume that a pandemic is already so widespread globally that it will inevitably infect a large fraction of the population. Then the key thing is to slow down the spread in each country so that the health care system can cope with the COVID-19 patients, many of which need intensive care with respirators. Eventually, the epidemic fades away due to herd immunity, i.e. there are enough recovered people to prevent effective spread of the virus in the population. This is called the mitigation strategy and often referred to as "flattening the curve". Depending on the still debated fatality and intensive care rates of COVID-19, the mitigation strategy may require a very long time frame of slow-down measures to allow the health care system to cope. This in turn could lead to unacceptable damage to the economy.