Prediction of the time evolution of the COVID-19 disease in Guadeloupe with a stochastic evolutionary model

MERIEM ALLALI; PATRICK PORTECOP; MICHEL CARLES; DOMINIQUE GIBERT

3. state "s" for severe is for people with enough severe symptoms to either see an urban doctor or be admitted in a hospital. These patients are considered to be isolated either at home or at the hospital and are no more able to infect other people. We note N s the instantaneous number of "s" patients and ΣN s the corresponding cumulative number. 4 . state "c" for critical is for patients in a critical state and necessitating intensive care in hospitals. As for "c", these patients are considered isolated from the "S" population and unable to infect others. We note N c the instantaneous number of "c" patients. 5 . state "R" for recovered is for patients "I", "s" or "c" that recovered after a period of time that depends on the considered state. The recovery periods will be respectively written ∆T I , ∆T s and ∆T c for states "I", "s" and "c". In the specific case of COVID-19, the main medical opinion is that "R" persons are protected against a new infection by the virus. We note ΣN R the cumulative number of "R" patients. 6 . state "d" for deceased patients. We note ΣN d the cumulative number of "d" patients.