Predictions for COVID-19 outbreak in India using Epidemiological models

Rajesh Ranjan

India first reported a COVID-19 case in a student who returned from Wuhan, China on January 30, 2020. For future references, 2020 is the default year for all the dates, unless mentioned otherwise. Since then, there has been a gradual rise in the number of infections with 1,251 cases on March 30, among which there are 1,117 active cases, 102 recovered cases and 32 deaths. In response, India has implemented international travel bans and a strict lockdown. However, countries like India are at a greater risk because of a very large population density, limited infrastructure and healthcare systems to cater to very large demands. On the other hand, factors like warmer climate as well as humidity [3, 4] , a large proportion of the young population, and possible immunity due to BCG vaccinations [5] , may favor India. Most of these studies are preliminary and correlation-based, and therefore more evidence is required for arriving at concrete conclusions [6] .