Data-Driven Mathematical Modeling and Dynamical Analysis for SARS-CoV-2 Coinfection with Bacteria

Zhou, Yu Huang Mingzhan Ying’an Jiang Zou Xiufen

The ongoing coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has serious influences on human health and economy. The available clinical data suggest that patients infected by SARS-CoV-2 have the possibility of simultaneous infection of bacteria. In this study, we present a data-driven mathematical model for coinfection of SARS-CoV-2 and bacteria to investigate the dynamics of COVID-19 progress. Specifically, based on the statistical analysis of different clinical data from China and some other countries, a system model with ordinary differential equations (ODEs) in four variables, i.e. SARS-CoV-2, bacteria, neutrophils and lymphocytes, is established. We further validate our model through theoretical analysis and fitting of different clinical data. Moreover, through numerical simulations and bifurcation analysis, we find that bacterial infection and immune-related parameters in certain ranges lead to the system transitions among three steady states, i.e. mild, severe and death. We also analyzed the influence of the time it takes for patients to switch from a high-risk area to a low-risk area on the recovery time. These results reveal that the coinfection of viruses and bacteria can explain the changes in neutrophils and lymphocytes, and that initial bacterial infection and immune-related parameters have great influences on the severity degree and mortality in COVID-19 patients. Together, our model and quantitative analysis suggest that preventing bacterial infection and enhancing immune ability during the early phase of infections could be a potential treatment option for high-risk COVID-19 patients.