Quantitative structure–activity relationship models for genotoxicity prediction based on combination evaluation strategies for toxicological alternative experiments

Yang, Xiaotong; Zhang, Zhengbao; Li, Qing; Cai, Yongming

Mutagenicity exerts adverse effects on humans. Conventional methods cannot simultaneously predict the toxicity of a large number of compounds. Most mutagenicity prediction models are based on a single experimental type and lack other experimental combination data as support, resulting in limited application scope and predictive ability. In this study, we partitioned data from GENE-TOX, CPDB, and Chemical Carcinogenesis Research Information System according to the weight-of-evidence method for modelling. In our data set, in vivo and in vitro experiments in groups as well as prokaryotic and eukaryotic cell experiments were included in accordance with the ICH guideline. We compared the two experimental combinations mentioned in the weight-of-evidence method and reintegrated the experimental data into three groups. Nine sub-models and three fusion models were established using random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and back propagation (BP) neural network algorithms. When fusing base models under the same algorithm according to the ensemble rules, all models showed excellent predictive performance. The RF, SVM, and BP fusion models reached a prediction accuracy rate of 83.4%, 80.5%, 79.0% respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) reached 0.853, 0.897, 0.865 respectively. Therefore, the established fusion QSAR models can serve as an early warning system for mutagenicity of compounds.