Author: Lucas Böttcher; Mingtao Xia; Tom Chou
Title: Why estimating population-based case fatality rates during epidemics may be misleading Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: embnko1q_35
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03. 26.20044693 doi: medRxiv preprint In the definitions of D 0 (t), R 0 (t), and N 0 (t), we account for all possible death and recovery cases to date (see SI) and that newly infected individuals are immediately identified. We use these case numbers as approximations of the reported case numbers to study the evolution of mortality-ratio est.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03. 26.20044693 doi: medRxiv preprint In the definitions of D 0 (t), R 0 (t), and N 0 (t), we account for all possible death and recovery cases to date (see SI) and that newly infected individuals are immediately identified. We use these case numbers as approximations of the reported case numbers to study the evolution of mortality-ratio estimates. Mortality ratios based on these numbers underestimate the actual individual mortality M 1 (see section II A) since they involve individuals that have been infected for different durations Ï„ , particularly recently infected individuals who have not yet died.
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