Selected article for: "mortality ratio and SIR model"
Author: Lucas Böttcher; Mingtao Xia; Tom Chou
Title: Why estimating population-based case fatality rates during epidemics may be misleading
  • Document date: 2020_3_30
    • ID: embnko1q_8
    Snippet: reference CFR Xu et al. [1, 11] and Mahase [12] 2 % Wu et al. [2] 0.1-1 % (outside Wuhan) World Health Organization [13, 14] 2-4 % an individual? In section II B, we describe how mortality ratios are defined within population-level models, specifically, a disease duration-structured SIR model. We will show that population-based estimates are typically not a meaningful measure of mortality, but that under simplifying assumptions, the mortality rat.....
    Document: reference CFR Xu et al. [1, 11] and Mahase [12] 2 % Wu et al. [2] 0.1-1 % (outside Wuhan) World Health Organization [13, 14] 2-4 % an individual? In section II B, we describe how mortality ratios are defined within population-level models, specifically, a disease duration-structured SIR model. We will show that population-based estimates are typically not a meaningful measure of mortality, but that under simplifying assumptions, the mortality ratio M p (t) is more closely related to the number of deaths to date divided by the number of dead plus the number of recovered individuals to date [4] . In the simplest approximation, the mortality ratio is currently (as of March 26, 2020) 21, 306/(21, 306+114, 749) ≈ 15.7% [3] , significantly higher than the March 26, 2020 CFR≈ 4.5% estimate.

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