Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against introductions of 2019-nCoV

Marius Gilbert; Giulia Pullano; Francesco Pinotti; Eugenio Valdano; Chiara Poletto; Pierre-Yves Boelle; Eric D'Ortenzio; Yazdan Yazdanpanah; Serge Paul Eholie; Mathias Altmann; Bernardo Gutierrez; Moritz U. G. Kraemer; Vittoria Colizza

Countries at the highest risk of importation, based on current epidemic situation in China, had moderate to high capacity scores. These may however correspond to different contributions to the mean SPAR indicators, reflecting different aspects of a country's functional capacity. For example, South Africa had the maximum score for the laboratory capacity (100), but a low score in risk communication (20). Conversely, Nigeria had a fairly low score in the laboratory capacity (27) and the maximum score in the IHR coordination capacity (100). Conversely, countries with the lowest SPAR capacity score had moderate (Kenya, Tanzania, Ghana) to low introduction risk. The evaluation of additional factors (demographic, socio-economic, political) included in the IDVI that may influence the overall potential impact of an unfolding epidemic identifies several countries that had a significant importation risk with a low to medium IDVI, such as Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt and Algeria. The risk of importation from other points of entry, such as for example sea ports was not evaluated here.