Why lockdown? Simplified arithmetic tools for decision-makers, health professionals, journalists and the general public to explore containment options for the novel coronavirus

Gerry Killeen; Samson Kiware

And with so many people's livelihoods on the lines, we may be asking too much of human nature by expecting everyone to do the right thing voluntarily. Many of the greatest public health campaigns in history have necessitated an authoritarian style, and it may be necessary for people all over the world to temporarily embrace and accept new restriction measures they would otherwise justifiably describe as draconian. Perhaps the single most important take-home message of the widelyaccepted 80-20 rule of epidemiology (less than 20% of people cause more than 80% of transmission) 110 is that the extremes of human circumstances and behaviour, especially during mass gatherings and population movements, are more important to the survival of pathogens than the average. It inevitably follows that such exceptions are vitally important to target if one wishes to eliminate COVID-19. [111] [112] [113] [114] Again, it is worth remembering Typhoid Mary 109 , who resisted repeated efforts to get her out of the kitchen and did nothing to disprove stereotypes about the stubborn Irish. She repeatedly returned to working as a cook because it paid better and frequently changed jobs as people fell ill around her, even changing her name to evade more than 30 years of quarantines imposed on her. It took 4 policemen over three hours to apprehend her despite a stealthy approach and forced entry to her home. Eventually Mary was found hiding in an outside closet at the rear of a neighbour's house, and things remained spicy following her arrest: