Author: Akian, M.; Ganassali, L.; Gaubert, S.; Massouli'e, L.
Title: Probabilistic and mean-field model of COVID-19 epidemics with user mobility and contact tracing Cord-id: 5qqgt6k4 Document date: 2020_9_11
ID: 5qqgt6k4
Snippet: We propose a detailed discrete-time model of COVID-19 epidemics coming in two flavours, mean-field and probabilistic. The main contribution lies in several extensions of the basic model that capture i) user mobility - distinguishing routing, i.e. change of residence, from commuting, i.e. daily mobility - and ii) contact tracing procedures. We confront this model to public data on daily hospitalizations, and discuss its application as well as underlying estimation procedures.
Document: We propose a detailed discrete-time model of COVID-19 epidemics coming in two flavours, mean-field and probabilistic. The main contribution lies in several extensions of the basic model that capture i) user mobility - distinguishing routing, i.e. change of residence, from commuting, i.e. daily mobility - and ii) contact tracing procedures. We confront this model to public data on daily hospitalizations, and discuss its application as well as underlying estimation procedures.
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